Simulating the Monty Hall Problem in Python
I recently found out via Reddit that the Monty Hall problem page on Wikipedia has caused quite a lot of heated dispute, mainly because people don't agree on that way in which the problem is solved.
If you haven't heard of the Monty Hally problem, here's a quote found on the Wikipedia page that describes the problem.
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Well, I thought it would be interesting to simulate the problem in Python to show that it is in fact to your benefit to switch doors from your original choice.
import random
def test():
doors = ['goat', 'goat', 'car'] # the three doors
random.shuffle(doors) # not necessary, since the doors choice is randomized, but I want to simulate the game show as closely as possible
playerPick = doors.pop(random.randint(0, len(doors) - 1)) # pick a random door
hostPick = doors.pop(doors.index('goat')) # host picks one of the doors with a goat behind it
prizes = {}
noSwitchPrize = playerPick # The player does not switch doors.
switchPrize = doors[0] # The player switches doors.
return noSwitchPrize, switchPrize
def runTests(repititions):
noSwitchCarCount = 0 # The number of times the car is won if the player does not switch doors.
switchCarCount = 0 # The number of times the car is won if the player switches doors.
for i in range(repititions):
noSwitchPrize, switchPrize = test()
noSwitchCarCount += 1 if noSwitchPrize == 'car' else 0 # count the game as a success if not switching the door results in winning a car
switchCarCount += 1 if switchPrize == 'car' else 0 # count the game as a success if switching the door results in winnning a car
return noSwitchCarCount, switchCarCount
repititions = int(raw_input("Repititions: ")) # input number of times we want to simulate the problem
noSwitchCarCount, switchCarCount = runTests(repititions)
print
print "Cars won if the player does not switch doors: "+str(noSwitchCarCount)+" ("+("%.2f" % (100 * (noSwitchCarCount / float(repititions))))+"% chance)"
print "Cars won if the player switches doors: "+str(switchCarCount)+" ("+("%.2f" % (100 * (switchCarCount / float(repititions))))+"% chance)"
print
print "Based off of these tests, it is a better idea to "+("not " if noSwitchCarCount > switchCarCount else "")+"switch doors."Here is my output run running the test 1,000,000 times.
Repititions: 1000000
Cars won if the player does not switch doors: 332805 (33.28% chance)
Cars won if the player switches doors: 667195 (66.72% chance)
Based off of these tests, it is a better idea to switch doors.This is clearly not a textbook way of solving the problem, but it is evidence enough for me to believe the accepted answer.